This page contains the things I have written. Visit my projects page to see some of the highlights organised by topic, as well as projects that I have overseen or managed.
2022
Raising the Bar: Managing Climate Change Risk in Public Authorities
Dibley, Arjuna;
Phillips, Toby;
and Young, Nick
2022
[Summary]
Raising the Bar: Managing Climate Change Risk in Public Authorities is a report from the Centre for Policy Development’s Sustainable Economy Program. It recommends that clear, transparent policy direction be provided to public authority directors. This can enable them to contribute to a whole-of-government picture of climate risk that meets and raises the standards that apply to all organisations, public and private, in discovering, disclosing and addressing climate risk. Raising the Bar examines the legal and practical aspects of how directors’ duties in public authorities and government-owned corporations (GOCs) apply in relation to climate risk, and makes six recommendations for best practice. 1. Give clear and transparent policy direction through ministerial statements 2. Standardise the technical frameworks for risk assessment, particularly around financial risk disclosure, for example by adapting the private sector framework from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure 3. Create a whole-of-government picture of climate risk exposure 4. Leverage audit offices’ authority to consider climate change risks among government agencies and/or public authorities 5. Invest in building capability and capacity 6. Influence private sector take-up of climate change risk reporting
The Gender Digital Gap: Shifting the Theoretical Focus to Systems Analysis and Feedback Loops
David, Raluca;
and Phillips, Toby
Information, Communication & Society,
2022
[Summary]
The past decades have seen efforts to increase digital inclusion for women worldwide, with the ultimate aim to advance gender equality. However, progress is slow, despite important advances in moving beyond a focus on ‘digital access’ (as measured by network coverage and hardware) towards a more holistic understanding of inclusion that considers abilities, awareness and agency. Here, we propose a further theoretical shift that draws on social system theories (e.g., Luhmann, 1984) and on the theory of ‘intersecting inequalities’ (Kabeer, 2010). We propose to understand the gender digital gap, particularly in mobile and internet usage, not merely descriptively but dynamically – since even factors like agency and awareness change over time – by applying concepts of feedback loops, low-equilibrium traps, multi-dimensional exclusion and systems analysis. This paper highlights how women may become locked in a state of low-inclusion unless the feedback loops between digital, social, economic and political exclusion are addressed through policies that tackle multiple dimensions. The paper reviews research on gender digital gaps with particular focus on developing countries, and with direct implications for policy-making.
What Have We Learned from Tracking Every Government Policy on COVID-19 for the Past Two Years?
Hale, Thomas;
Cameron-Blake, Emily;
Di Folco, Martina;
Furst, Rodrigo;
Green, Kaitlyn;
Phillips, Toby;
Sudarmawan, Anthony;
Tatlow, Helen;
and Zha, Hao
,
2022
[Summary]
Over the past two years, the COVID-19 pandemic has tested the capacity of every government in the world to perform its most basic function: protect the wellbeing of its people. The results vary enormously. Some of the countries with the most sophisticated health systems have seen horrific levels of death, as well as sharp economic and social impacts. At the same time, some states with few of the indicators for preparedness most academic and policy literature emphasized – for example, hospital beds, testing capacity, or access to vaccines – have performed much better across all dimensions. These differing outcomes present an enormous puzzle to researchers, policymakers, and citizens: why did some do better than others, and what does that mean for how we prepare ourselves for the future?
Who’s Buying? The Impact of Global Decarbonisation on Australia’s Regions
Smith, Warwick;
and Phillips, Toby
2022
2021
A Year of Living Distantly: Global Trends in the Use of Stay-at-Home Orders over the First 12 Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Phillips, Toby;
Zhang, Yuxi;
and Petherick, Anna
Interface Focus,
2021
[Summary]
During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were the main pillar of defence to protect human society against the virus. While a variety of modelling studies try to quantify the effects of NPIs, this paper investigates when and how national and subnational governments have taken actions. We observe longitudinal changes in the global pattern of policymaking to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on stay-at-home orders. Drawing on data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we show several important trends. First, while national governments exhibited a strong alignment in policy settings initially in March and April 2020, their cross-country policy heterogeneity has grown since May 2020, although countries within global regions continue to display similarities in their approaches. Second, most governments that have implemented multiple stay-at-home orders over the course of the pandemic have become less sensitive to case levels (insofar as they implement subsequent restrictions at progressively higher case levels), apart from a small number of contrast cases which have mostly eliminated domestic community transmission. Third, pandemic policies are increasingly specific to subnational levels, and there is often significant heterogeneity with regard to policy approaches even within the same country.
Protective Behaviors Against COVID-19 by Individual Vaccination Status in 12 Countries During the Pandemic
Goldszmidt, Rafael;
Petherick, Anna;
Andrade, Eduardo B.;
Hale, Thomas;
Furst, Rodrigo;
Phillips, Toby;
and Jones, Sarah
JAMA Network Open,
2021
Moving from Words to Action: Identifying Political Barriers to Pandemic Preparedness
Hale, Thomas;
Di Folco, Martina;
Hallas, Laura;
Petherick, Anna;
Phillips, Toby;
and Zhang, Yuxi
,
2021
[Summary]
Identifying Political Barriers to Pandemic Preparedness
What Are Governments Doing to Support the Regions, Cities and Towns Hardest-Hit by COVID-19?
Di Folco, Martina;
Simon-Kumar, Naomi;
Phillips, Toby;
Pott, Annalena;
Buklijas, Tatjana;
Baki, Paul;
Mendha, Sakina Bano;
Cruz, Modesto;
Galuzzi, Catalina;
Jayaram, Akhila;
Kapoor, Simran;
Kock, Rachelle;
Lin, Yanying;
Michalek, Tomáš;
Minh, Trang Nghiem Nguyen;
Podestà, Martina;
Sarkar, Sonnet;
Sarro, Caitlin;
Sudarmawan, Anthony;
and Zhou, Hui
IPPO,
2021
[Summary]
This global research scan by INGSA and the Blavatnik School of Government summarises policy initiatives introduced around the world to support local places that have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic.
Time to Respond to the Climate for Investment
McLeod, Travers;
and Phillips, Toby
The Australian,
2021
[Summary]
While Scott Morrison met with Quad leaders at the White House last week in the wake of the AUKUS announcement, his Treasurer spoke to industry leaders in Australia about another “structural and systemic shift” – climate change.
Joint Standing Committee on Trade and Investment Growth Inquiry into Prudential Regulation of Investment in Australia’s Export Industries
Phillips, Toby;
and McLeod, Travers
,
2021
Government Responses and COVID-19 Deaths: Global Evidence across Multiple Pandemic Waves
Hale, Thomas;
Angrist, Noam;
Hale, Andrew J.;
Kira, Beatriz;
Majumdar, Saptarshi;
Petherick, Anna;
Phillips, Toby;
Sridhar, Devi;
Thompson, Robin N.;
Webster, Samuel;
and Zhang, Yuxi
PLOS ONE,
2021
[Summary]
We provide an assessment of the impact of government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves of the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 186 countries from January 1, 2020 until March 11th, 2021. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0–100). Countries were divided into successive waves via a mathematical algorithm to identify peaks and troughs of disease. Within our period of analysis, 63 countries experienced at least one wave, 40 countries experienced two waves, and 10 countries saw three waves, as defined by our approach. Within each wave, regression was used to assess the relationship between the strength of government stringency and subsequent deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Across the full period of our analysis and 113 countries, an increase of 10 points on the SI was linked to 6 percentage points (P < 0.001, 95% CI = [5%, 7%]) lower average daily deaths. In the first wave, in countries that ultimately experiences 3 waves of the pandemic to date, ten additional points on the SI resulted in lower average daily deaths by 21 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [8%, 16%]). This effect was sustained in the third wave with reductions in deaths of 28 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [13%, 21%]). Moreover, interaction effects show that government policies were effective in reducing deaths in all waves in all groups of countries. These findings highlight the enduring importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 over time.
How Much Longer Should We Expect Lockdowns to Be Used?
,
2021
[Summary]
As parts of NSW prepare to spend a third week in lockdown, authorities concede the community is feeling pandemic fatigue. It was this time last year Melbourne began a gruelling three-month ordeal and Sydneysiders are coming to terms with their lockdown being extended for another week.
From Albania to Uzbekistan, How Governments Have Used Income Support Measures to Protect People and Jobs during COVID-19
Di Folco, Martina;
Simon-Kumar, Naomi;
Wood, Andrew;
Nusser, Tim;
Phillips, Toby;
and Buklijas, Tatjana
IPPO,
2021
[Summary]
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the global economy on an unprecedented scale. This evidence scan compares how countries have attempted to mitigate the negative economic repercussions using often-innovative income support measures
How Are Young Adults Being Supported during COVID-19 and beyond? A Global Scan of Policy Responses
Di Folco, Martina;
Simon-Kumar, Naomi;
Phillips, Toby;
Buklijas, Tatjana;
Mendha, Sakina Bano;
Ighomuaye, Tiwalade;
Jayaram, Akhila;
Li, Jiayi;
Sarro, Caitlin;
Sudarmawan, Anthony;
Tan, Zijia;
Zhang, Shubo;
Zhang, Yuxi;
and Zhou, Ziqi
IPPO,
2021
[Summary]
This research scan explores how governments around the world have tried to mitigate the pandemic’s negative repercussions on young adults. Contributors surveyed 191 countries and found relevant policies in 23 of them
Australia’s Policy for Citizens Returning from India "the Strictest in the World" | The World
,
2021
[Summary]
7,301 views • 14 May 2021 • How does Australia compare to other nations when it comes to repatriating citizens? Oxford University’s Coronavirus Government Response Tracker has found Australia is one of the few countries where strict lockdowns are being imposed at lower and lower case levels. Executive director Toby Phillips tells The World Australia’s policy for citizen’s returning from India is the strictest in the world. Subscribe: http://ab.co/1svxLVE ABC News provides around the clock coverage of news events as they break in Australia and abroad, including the latest coronavirus pandemic updates. It’s news when you want it, from Australia’s most trusted news organisation. For more from ABC News, click here: https://ab.co/2kxYCZY Watch more ABC News content ad-free on iview: https://ab.co/2OB7Mk1 Go deeper on our ABC News In-depth channel: https://ab.co/2lNeBn2 Like ABC News on Facebook: http://facebook.com/abcnews.au Follow ABC News on Instagram: http://instagram.com/abcnews_au Follow ABC News on Twitter: http://twitter.com/abcnews #ABCNews #ABCNewsAustralia Show less Show more
A Year of Living Distantly: Trends in the Use of Stay-at-Home Orders Over the First 12 Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Phillips, Toby;
Zhang, Yuxi;
and Petherick, Anna
2021
[Summary]
During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) were the main pillar of defense to protect human society against the virus. While a variety of modeling studies try to quantify the effects of NPIs, this paper investigates when and how national and subnational governments take actions. We observe longitudinal changes in the global pattern of policymaking to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on stay-at-home orders. Drawing on data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we show several important trends. First, while national governments exhibited a strong convergence in policy settings initially in March and April 2020, their cross-country policy heterogeneity has grown since May 2020, although neighboring countries often continue to display similarities in their approaches. Second, most governments that have implemented multiple stay-at-home orders over the course of the pandemic have become less sensitive to case levels (insofar as they implement subsequent restrictions at progressively higher case levels), apart from a small number of contrast cases which have mostly eliminated domestic community transmission. Third, pandemic policy decisions are increasingly made at subnational levels, however there is significant heterogeneity with regards to decision-making approaches even within the same country.
A Global Panel Database of Pandemic Policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)
Hale, Thomas;
Angrist, Noam;
Goldszmidt, Rafael;
Kira, Beatriz;
Petherick, Anna;
Phillips, Toby;
Webster, Samuel;
Cameron-Blake, Emily;
Hallas, Laura;
Majumdar, Saptarshi;
and Tatlow, Helen
Nature Human Behaviour,
2021
[Summary]
COVID-19 has prompted unprecedented government action around the world. We introduce the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), a dataset that addresses the need for continuously updated, readily usable and comparable information on policy measures. From 1 January 2020, the data capture government policies related to closure and containment, health and economic policy for more than 180 countries, plus several countries’ subnational jurisdictions. Policy responses are recorded on ordinal or continuous scales for 19 policy areas, capturing variation in degree of response. We present two motivating applications of the data, highlighting patterns in the timing of policy adoption and subsequent policy easing and reimposition, and illustrating how the data can be combined with behavioural and epidemiological indicators. This database enables researchers and policymakers to explore the empirical effects of policy responses on the spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths, as well as on economic and social welfare.
How Does Australia’s Vaccine Rollout Compare to Other Countries? | The World
,
2021
[Summary]
7,201 views • 2 Apr 2021 • Back in January the Prime Minister proclaimed Australia would vaccinate up to four million people against coronavirus by the end of march. But we have failed to reach even a quarter of that, raising serious questions about our rollout capability. Toby Phillips is the executive director of the oxford coronavirus government response tracker. He says several developing countries have reached their targets more effectively than Australia. Subscribe: http://ab.co/1svxLVE ABC News provides around the clock coverage of news events as they break in Australia and abroad, including the latest coronavirus pandemic updates. It’s news when you want it, from Australia’s most trusted news organisation. For more from ABC News, click here: https://ab.co/2kxYCZY Watch more ABC News content ad-free on iview: https://ab.co/2OB7Mk1 Go deeper on our ABC News In-depth channel: https://ab.co/2lNeBn2 Like ABC News on Facebook: http://facebook.com/abcnews.au Follow ABC News on Instagram: http://instagram.com/abcnews_au Follow ABC News on Twitter: http://twitter.com/abcnews #ABCNews #ABCNewsAustralia Show less Show more
Variation in the Response to COVID-19 across the Four Nations of the United Kingdom
Cameron-Blake, Emily;
Tatlow, Helen;
Hale, Thomas;
Phillips, Toby;
Grewal, Sagar;
and Wood, Andrew
BSG research note,
2021
[Summary]
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom (UK) in early 2020, the four nations of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have responded with a wide range of measures. Due to the devolved powers afforded to the governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, all four nations of the UK have used their autonomy to implement and ease COVID-19 restrictions. While economic support and public health measures have been similar across the four UK nations, and all four nations have been at a Stringency Index value of over 50 since March 2020, the different governments have diverged in their implementation of closure and containment policies since May 2020. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) provides a systematic way to measure and compare government responses to COVID-19 across the four nations from 1 January 2020 to the present, and will be updated continuously going forward. The tracker combines individual indicators into a series of novel indices that aggregate various measures of government responses. These can be used to describe variation in government responses, explore whether the government response affects the rate of infection, and identify correlates of more or less intense responses.
Online Education for Schoolchildren during COVID-19: A Scan of Policies and Initiatives around the World
Wood, Andrew;
Nusser, Tim;
Di Folco, Martina;
Tatlow, Helen;
Simon-Kumar, Naomi;
Phillips, Toby;
and Buklijas, Tatjana
IPPO,
2021
[Summary]
At least 90% of countries, regions and territories closed all levels of schooling at some point in the pandemic. But which policies did each country enact to support children’s learning during these closures?
Global Climate Action Will Reshape Australia’s Trade
Phillips, Toby
Australian Financial Review,
2021
[Summary]
As countries cut emissions and demand for our key fossil fuel exports, we must make adroit shift and seize the big industrial opportunities of a post-carbon era.
Chasing the Pack: Australia’s Prospects on Green Trade and Climate Diplomacy
Phillips, Toby
2021
Education during the COVID-19: Crisis Opportunities and Constraints of Using EdTech in Low-Income Countries
Jordan, Katy;
David, Raluca;
Phillips, Toby;
and Pellini, Arnaldo
Revista de Educación a Distancia (RED),
2021
[Summary]
The Covid-19 pandemic has ushered in a period of educational disruption on an unprecedented scale. During this time of crisis, education will not be business as usual, and EdTech alone cannot close the learning gap. It will be dedicated teachers and resilient educators who will ensure learning doesn’t st op — but they could be helped by the right EdTech tools. However, the digital divide means that internet and mobile network access varies greatly in middle and low - income countries. In this discussion paper, we explore some of the key constraints of using EdTech at scale to support education in low - income countries at a time of crisis, and highlight the opportunities that have so far emerged, in a rapidly - changing context. We draw upon evidence and examples to inform policy and programming decisions, moving from the initial emergency response to building resilience in the longer term, and planning to diagnose and treat the learning gaps that have emerged during the crisis.
Lessons from Implementing the Digital Economy Kit: Moving from Diagnosis to Action
Phillips, Toby;
Qhotsokoane, Tebello;
Gupta, Pranjali;
and Stuart, Elizabeth
Digital Pathways at Oxford Paper Series No. 3,
2021
[Summary]
For the past two years, Digital Pathways at Oxford (originally the Pathways for Prosperity Commission) has been developing, piloting and supporting the roll out of its Digital Economy Kit; a toolkit to deliver digital transformation.
How Data and Digital Technologies Can Transform Education Systems
Stuart, Elizabeth;
Phillips, Toby;
and David, Raluca
Published in Powering a Learning Society During an Age of Disruption,
2021
[Summary]
Digital transformation is reshaping many elements of society across the world. As new technologies arrive, they fundamentally alter how people exchange information and organize activity. Yet despite this upheaval, education is still suffering from a global learning crisis. Digital technologies have the potential to power learning in an age of disruption: improving learning outcomes, and making systems work better for students, teachers, and decision makers. In this chapter we discuss how this is only possible if systems are designed around data. Mass investment in digital hardware for hardware’s sake has been shown time and again to be blunt and ineffective, yielding few gains. Simply having computers or phones is not enough to create a learning society. Instead, education leaders need to think about what data exists, how to collect, standardize, and put data to use. This can allow better resource allocation, personalized support for students, more rapid curriculum reviews, and more, leading to a learning society for all.
2020
Using Data to Fight COVID-19
Phillips, Toby
X-PRIZE Foundation,
2020
[Summary]
Using Data to Fight COVID-19 Using Data to Fight COVID-19
Risk of Openness Index: When Do Government Responses Need to Be Increased or Maintained?
Hale, Thomas;
Phillips, Toby;
Petherick, Anna;
Kira, Beatriz;
Angrist, Noam;
Aymar, Katy;
Webster, Sam;
Majumdar, Saptarshi;
Hallas, Laura;
Tatlow, Helen;
and Cameron-Blake, Emily
BSG research note,
2020
[Summary]
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have used a wide array of closure and containment policies such as school and workplace closings, travel restrictions, and stay-at-home orders to try to break the chain of infection. They have also rapidly deployed test-trace-isolate procedures to seek to detect and isolate transmission as soon as possible. As the disease has spread around the world, these policies have waxed and waned in many jurisdictions. For example, some have rolled back ‘lockdown’ measures following a reduction in community transmission. Others are seeing a rise and fall of containment measures as small outbreaks occur. And others still are seeing large surges and responding with aggressive containment policies. As governments seek to calibrate policy to risk, how and when do they know it is safe to open up, and when must they instead close down?
Eat Out to Help Out: Crowded Restaurants May Have Driven UK Coronavirus Spike – New Findings
Phillips, Toby
The Conversation,
2020
[Summary]
Why UK government would have been wiser to either stick to pure business subsidies or offer its August restaurant scheme seven days a week.
Global Assessment of the Relationship between Government Response Measures and COVID-19 Deaths
Hale, Thomas;
Hale, Andrew J.;
Kira, Beatriz;
Petherick, Anna;
Phillips, Toby;
Sridhar, Devi;
Thompson, Robin;
Webster, Samuel;
and Angrist, Noam
medRxiv working paper,
2020
[Summary]
Objective: To provide an early global assessment of the impact of government stringency measures on the rate of growth in deaths from COVID-19. We hypothesized that the overall stringency of a government9s interventions and the speed of implementation would affect the growth and level of deaths related to COVID-19 in that country. Design: Observational study based on an original database of global governmental responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 170 countries from January 1, 2020 until May 27, 2020 by a team of researchers at Oxford University, UK. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0-100). Regression was used to show correlations between the speed and strength of government stringency and deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Interventions: Nine non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closures, restrictions on international and domestic travel, public gathering bans, public information campaigns, as well as testing and contact tracing policies. Main outcomes measures: The primary outcome was deaths related to COVID-19, measured both in terms of maximum daily deaths and growth rate of daily deaths. Results: For each day of delay to reach an SI 40, the average daily growth rate in deaths was 0.087 percentage points higher (0.056 to 0.118, P<0.001). In turn, each additional point on the SI was associated with a 0.080 percentage point lower average daily growth rate (-0.121 to -0.039, P<.001). These daily differences in growth rates lead to large cumulative differences in total deaths. For example, a week delay in enacting policy measures to SI 40 would lead to 1.7 times as many deaths overall. Conclusions: A lower degree of government stringency and slower response times were associated with more deaths from COVID-19. These findings highlight the importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 as more robust testing, treatment, and vaccination measures are developed.
Pandemic Governance Requires Understanding Socioeconomic Variation in Government and Citizen Responses to COVID-19
Hale, Thomas;
Angrist, Noam;
Kira, Beatriz;
Goldszmidt, Rafael G.;
Petherick, Anna;
and Phillips, Toby
Working paper SSRN ID 3641927,
2020
[Summary]
As governments respond to COVID-19 with drastic measures to curb transmission, understanding how socio-economic and political factors condition both government and citizen responses is critical. Analysis of over 160 countries shows that governments adopted restrictive measures at the same moment, in contrast to World Health Organization advice recommending that measures be phased in as the disease spread. While this herd behavior makes it difficult to identify straightforward relationships between country characteristics, such as the nature of the political system, and the speed and degree of response, low-income countries seem to differ sharply from wealthier nations in both the speed at which they adopt restrictive measures and the effect such measures have on citizens’ mobility. Going forward, further research into socio-economic and political factors will be needed to tailor public health advice.
Lockdown Rollback Checklist: Do Countries Meet WHO Recommendations for Rolling Back Lockdown?
Hale, Thomas;
Phillips, Toby;
Petherick, Anna;
Kira, Beatriz;
Angrist, Noam;
and Webster, Sam
BSG research note,
2020
[Summary]
As countries begin to roll back ‘lockdown’ measures, how and when do we know it is safe to do so? The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) provides a cross-national overview of which countries meet four of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) six recommendations for relaxing physical distancing measures. While the OxCGRT data cannot fully say how ready countries are to leave lockdown, it does provide for a rough comparison across nations. Even this ’high level’ view reveals that few countries are close to meeting the WHO criteria for rolling back lockdown measures. At the time of writing, only a handful of countries are doing well at the four ’checklist’ criteria OxCGRT is able to track. This research note provides supplementary information and analysis to the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and its related working paper.
Australia Must Look beyond the Dirt – and Dirty Exports – to Get out of a Hole
Phillips, Toby
The New Daily,
2020
[Summary]
Australia’s strongest export industries come from what we can dig out of the ground. This is our comparative advantage – but all our eggs are in one basket.
Digital Technology Governance: Developing Countries’ Priorities and Concerns
Phillips, Toby;
Kira, Beatriz;
Tartakowsky, Andrea;
Dolan, Jonathan;
and Natih, Putu
Digital Pathways at Oxford Paper Series No. 3,
2020
[Summary]
This paper discusses the technology policy priorities of policymakers and subject-matter experts in developing countries, based on a quantitative analysis of an online survey of digital policy experts from different countries and regions, and a qualitative analysis of interviews and focus-groups with government global experts in technology policy.
Using Digital Technologies to Re-Imagine Cash Transfers during the Covid-19 Crisis
Soon-Shiong, Nika;
Qhotsokoane, Tebello;
and Phillips, Toby
Digital Pathways at Oxford Paper Series No. 2,
2020
[Summary]
As the Covid-19 pandemic unfolds, policymakers around the world are facing unprecedented pressure to rapidly provide support and assistance to the most vulnerable. This paper focuses on cash transfers—the most common form of social assistance interventions, and identifies how technologies can help rapidly deploy and scale new cash transfer programmes with the added benefit of minimising in-person contact.
Variation in Government Responses to COVID-19
Hale, Thomas;
Angrist, Noam;
Kira, Beatriz;
Petherick, Anna;
Phillips, Toby;
and Webster, Sam
BSG Working Paper Series BSG-WP-2020/032,
2020
[Summary]
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak has prompted a wide range of responses from governments around the world. There is a pressing need for up-to-date policy information as these responses proliferate, and governments weigh decisions about the stringency of their policies against other concerns. The authors introduce the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), providing a systematic way to track the stringency of government responses to COVID-19 across countries and time. The data is combined into a series of novel indices that aggregate various measures of government responses. These indices are used to describe variation in government responses, explore whether the government response affects the rate of infection, and identify correlates of more or less intense responses.
Where Australia Stands in the COVID-19 “First Movers” Group
The World,
2020
[Summary]
Researcher Toby Phillips from the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker speaks to The World about Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and what its recovery will look like alongside other countries.
New Database to Help Test Effectiveness of COVID-19 Responses
AM,
2020
[Summary]
A new database is bringing together information on Covid-19 control measures used around the world as part of effirts to understand which are most effective in protecting the community.
It’s Time to Admit Our COVID-19 ’exit Strategy’ Might Just Look like a More Flexible Version of Lockdown
Phillips, Toby
The Conversation,
2020
[Summary]
We must figure out how to scale the lockdown up and down as needed – possibly several times. We might need to locally switch areas on and off – not the whole country – to deal with isolated outbreaks.
Intensity Of Lockdown In India And Other Countries | Toby Philips & Manikarnika Dutta Exclusive
News Track,
2020
[Summary]
Experts debate on the swift and strict measures taken by India and other countries including UK, Italy and others as they imposed nationwide lockdown to fight Covid-19 and how effective it has been curb the spread of the deadly novel coronavirus. India had scored a ’100’ on the Stringency Index devloped by researchers at the University of Oxford after the government nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus. Watch Toby Phllips, Head of Policy Reasearch, Digital Pathways at Oxford and Manikarnika Dutta, Medicine Historian on India Today to discuss the topic.
Education during the COVID-19 Crisis: Opportunities and Constraints of Using EdTech in Low-Income Countries
David, Raluca;
Pellini, Arnaldo;
Jordan, Katy;
and Phillips, Toby
Ed-Tech Hub and Blavatnik School of Government research brief,
2020
[Summary]
During this time of crisis, education will not be business-as-usual, and EdTech alone cannot close the learning gap. It will be dedicated teachers and resilient educators who will ensure learning doesn’t stop — but they could be helped by the right EdTech tools.
Keeping a Cool Head – Thinking about the Covid-19 Crisis
Phillips, Toby
Club Troppo,
2020
[Summary]
This post is a direct response and rebuttal to the recent ‘Has the coronavirus panic cost us at least 10 million lives already?’ by Paul Fritjers. Paul’s post takes the current covid-19 crisis, and\ldots
A Roadmap for Digital-Led Economic Development
Phillips, Toby
VoxEU CEPR Policy Portal,
2020
[Summary]
In richer developed nations almost 90% of people are online, but this number is less than 20% in the least-developed countries. This column presents the Pathways for Prosperity Commission’s final report, which offers pragmatic suggestions to help developing countries make the most of technological change. It proposes a ‘digital compact’, with countries working towards a shared vision for the future crafted with the input of industry, civil society, and other national leaders.
2019
The Digital Roadmap: How Developing Countries Can Get Ahead. Final Report of the Pathways for Prosperity Commission.
Pathways for Prosperity Commission,
2019
[Summary]
With new digital technologies come opportunities for low and middle-income countries to diversify their economies, create new jobs, transform agriculture, and improve health and education. But digital technologies can also entrench exclusion and disrupt peoples’ livelihoods. This report, based on two years of research and analysis, is underpinned by learning and extensive engagement with policymakers, entrepreneurs, civil society and academics from around the world. The Digital Roadmap sets out 26 concrete recommendations across 5 priorities to ensure that the digital revolution leads to inclusive growth for everyone.
Governing Technological Disruption: Policy and Regulation for a Digital Age
Phillips, Toby;
and Kira, Beatriz
Published in Oxford Government Review Issue 4: The New Generations,
2019
[Summary]
Regulatory tools from an analogue past are ill-suited to achieve policy goals in the digital age, and decisions made today will affect businesses, societies, and economies for decades to come. As young people are the most active users of information and communication technologies, they are the ones who will be most affected. Policymakers need to adapt and innovate to govern new technologies – not only for the challenges of government today, but also for the future.
We Have the Tools and Technology to Work Less and Live Better
Phillips, Toby
Aeon,
2019
[Summary]
Keynes was almost right about the 15-hour working week of the future: we could live as well even on half those hours
Digital Diplomacy: Technology Governance for Developing Countries
Pathways for Prosperity Commission,
2019
[Summary]
This report highlights that international cooperation is key to making the governance of digital technologies work for developing countries. Governance of the digital economy can have a massive impact on the ways that technologies can be used. Developing countries have struggled to catch up with the pace of change, and in their attempts to govern technology they have used models exported from the EU and the US, which are often inappropriate for local contexts. Surprisingly little attention is paid to how resource-constrained countries should approach digital regulation – either within their own countries or as an increasingly pressing transnational issue. Through our work, five principles emerged repeatedly which could guide efforts to make sure that cross-border governance of digital technologies works for developing countries.
Digital Economy Kit
Pathways for Prosperity Commission,
2019
[Summary]
The Digital Economy Kit provides a framework for countries to get digitally ready. It is not about ICT sector strategy, instead it is about holistic growth strategies that harness digital technologies across the economy. The kit involves diagnostic assessment and strategic planning, but the heart of the kit is an inclusive dialogue process that brings together stakeholders across the country to craft a shared vision for the future. It is built on work piloted with the governments of Ethiopia, Mongolia, and South Africa.
Positive Disruption: Health and Education in a Digital Age
Pathways for Prosperity Commission,
2019
[Summary]
Positive disruption: health and education in a digital age offers guidance on how digital technologies can be used to improve the lives of people in developing countries, while keeping a careful eye on the limitations and risks of focusing solely on hardware over people and processes. Technology is not a silver bullet and history is littered with poor investments in this area. To ensure health and education services are effective, efficient and equitable, governments need to be wise with their choices.
What Data Dominance Really Means, and How Countries Can Compete
Phillips, Toby
World Economic Forum – Agenda,
2019
[Summary]
The firms that benefit in the digital economy are those that can amass large volumes of data, then analyze them to create a competitive advantage. To keep up, countries must encourage such companies.
2018
Digital Lives: Meaningful Connections for the Next 3 Billion
Pathways for Prosperity Commission,
2018
[Summary]
The Commission’s major report Digital Lives: Meaningful Connections for the Next 3 Billion explores how people in developing countries are actually using digital services. The report highlights how digital exclusion can exacerbate existing inequalities and how countries can ensure marginalised people, including women and those without education, are not left further behind.
Charting Pathways for Inclusive Growth: From Paralysis to Preparation
Pathways for Prosperity Commission,
2018
[Summary]
Charting Pathways for Inclusive Growth: From Paralysis to Preparation examines the impact of technological innovation on growth, jobs and livelihoods in developing economies. This report outlines five possible pathways that developing countries could adopt for future inclusive growth and jobs for people living in poverty. Optimism and collective action are needed – not policy paralysis by developing country governments.
A Welfare Generation: Lifetime Welfare Transfers between Generations
Bangham, George;
Finch, David;
and Phillips, Toby
Intergenerational Commission report (Resolution Foundation),
2018
[Summary]
This research paper looks at what people put in and take out from the welfare state over their lifetime, updating John Hills’ seminal research on life-cycle welfare transfers between generations. It estimates the extent to which past and future cohorts contribute to the welfare state via taxation and withdraw from its core pillars – education, health and social security – over the course of their lifetimes. It finds that successive generations have received more from Britain’s welfare system than they have paid in, with baby boomers gaining the most so far and the pre-war ‘silent generation’ gaining the least.
The UK welfare system runs on a ‘pay as you go’ basis, with workers contributing to fund support for children, pensioners and those in need. If longevity, cohort size and levels of tax and spend remained the same across time, then, with an annual balanced budget, successive cohorts would put in precisely what they take out. Of course in reality that is not the case, and variation in each of those factors shapes the extent to which different cohorts as a whole are net withdrawers from the welfare state over their lifetimes.
How 300,000 "forgotten people" are falling through cracks in the welfare system
Phillips, Toby
Prospect Magazine,
2018
[Summary]
Many do not claim the benefits they should be entitled to. To find out why, the government must make better use of its data
Falling through the Cracks: The Widening Gap between Unemployment and Benefit Statistics
Phillips, Toby
Resolution Foundation report,
2018
[Summary]
The implementation of Universal Credit, by combining six in- and out-of-work benefits into one, could provide a much needed refocus on groups at the edges of the labour market who need support. It is also an opportunity to provide greater practical support to people stuck at low levels of earnings.
But our analysis suggests the new regime will still miss some key groups who currently do not claim support. And with a growing share of low earners in the gap, it is vital that the new in-work conditionality being introduced via UC for people earning less than a full-time job at the wage floor (with some exceptions for carers) supports people to either achieve a sustained employment outcome or progress to a higher level of earnings.
2017
Data as Capital: Inequality and Power in the Information Economy
Submission to House of Lords Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence (AIC0197),
2017
[Summary]
This submission addresses questions 4 and 7 from the call for submissions:
4. Who in society is gaining the most from the development and use of artificial intelligence and data? Who is gaining the least? How can potential disparities be mitigated?
7. How can the data-based monopolies of some large corporations, and the ‘winner- takes-all’ economies associated with them, be addressed? How can data be managed and safeguarded to ensure it contributes to the public good and a well-functioning economy?
In particular, we address the asymmetries in power, choice and profit. We believe there are two key questions for the House of Lords to address: who should act on behalf of users and citizens? and, what are the potential remedies?
Time to Put Away the Credit Card
Phillips, Toby
Resolution Foundation blog,
2017
The Bitter Debate That We Need to Have about Home Ownership
Phillips, Toby
The Sydney Morning Herald,
2017
[Summary]
Housing policy is stuck in some kind of Groundhog Day loop. Every couple of weeks the issue comes back on the agenda.